An Taoiseach, Brian Cowen
The next two months will be crucial for Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his government and the poll ratings will provide little comfort. Cowen is right when he says it does not matter whether his ratings stand at 15 per cent or 55 per cent as the job remains the same. But there is no doubt that the government has lost public confidence and that Cowen, like his British counterpart, has failed to inspire.
The taoiseach appears bewildered by the scale of the problem he faces. Unfortunately for his nervous colleagues, his legendary bulldog skills seem somewhat toothless as his Dail performances are at best lacklustre.
Nevertheless, with all the issues facing Ireland now the last thing the country needs is a general election.
It must be tempting for Fianna Fail to cut and run. It would be much easier to be in opposition for the next three or four years.
Eamon Gilmore seems to sense that too and despite his party’s strong showing, knows that playing second fiddle to a Fine Gael-led administration will not be as easy as it presently seems. The Irish electorate are a fickle bunch and the rising tide of public support may not last if a bruised and bitter Fianna Fail hit the opposition benches.
Fianna Fail, like Labour in Britain and perhaps the SDLP in the north, is a party that appears to have run out of steam – it is persisting rather than existing.
The Labour project appears finished and they are now banking on some unknown revelation damaging Campaign Cameron in the eyes of the electorate. This is more of a prayer than a strategy.
Cameron does not have to do or say anything as Labour seems paralysed. Gordon Brown is about as skilful as Frank Spencer when it comes to political savvy. If he laid a golden egg he could not find anyone to buy it.
Both Cowen and Brown are finding that it’s not easy to inherit power from charismatic leaders like Ahern or Blair. The wooden Al Gore encountered the same problem post-Bill Clinton. Cowen and Brown, mistakenly like Gore, opted to tactically distance themselves from their predecessors – with disastrous results.
Moreover, that Fianna Fail did not even consider the option of ‘national’ government will be remembered as one of the great political follies of the present administration.
That they dithered over the issue of the Irish banks and now appear incapable of selling their rescue option is pure incompetence. Yet Fine Gael declaring their opposition to Nama is playing a dangerous game of fast and loose with the Irish economy. There is no doubt this may come back to haunt them if in government.
The bizarre aspect of all the ongoing political shenanigans is the slow-burn courtship of Fianna Fail with its potential northern support base.
Apparently, they held another ‘forum’ in Northern Ireland with two government ministers present. The choice of location – Downpatrick – was not lost on the SDLP. Fianna Fail says this is not about elections but it will unnerve those in the SDLP of a nervous disposition.
Though, to be honest, this is an unnecessary political distraction for Fianna Fail at this time and an unwelcome intervention for the SDLP.
Of course, the left-leaning, latte-sipping Luddites of the middle class and intellectually elitist, mainly Belfast, SDLP are looking forward with relish to a change of Irish government as if in some way it will rescue the fortunes of their party.
They mistakenly judge that those who favour Fianna Fail organising in the north do so because they are in government.
There is an inevitability about Fianna Fail being organised for northern elections by 2016. It’s pointless of those in the SDLP to continually ignore or complain about the independent actions of another political organisation. They should look to their own house.
The SDLP languishes because its political touchstone is its diminishing membership which appears increasingly out of sync with the wider mood of its potential electorate. When the SDLP asks where to go next, it asks itself.
For the past eight years, with the exception of south Belfast, the SDLP has had no electoral bounce. It’s time to leave the woolly comfort-zone and strike out for new partnerships, whether it’s internally in Northern Ireland or in a north/south context.
No-one should welcome the demise of politics as represented by the SDLP but when everyone knows the lyrics, its time to change the song. As they say fortune favours the brave, not the bewildered.